Although a final number hasn't been established, the Padres' payroll next season probably will be in the $40 million range -- and maybe under. The cut from last year will be more than 35 percent ... and possibly more than 40 percent.

Owner John Moores is in no position to suddenly open his pocketbook. His divorce proceedings have tied his hands. Cuts were going to be made even before the global economy went south.

But the Padres already have salary commitments for 2009 totaling more than $30 million for five players -- Peavy, right fielder Brian Giles, right-hander Chris Young, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and shortstop Khalil Greene.

Something has to give. Someone has to go. Probably more than one. The leading candidates are Peavy, who has the biggest contract, and Greene, who becomes a free agent at the end of next season. Third on the list is Giles.

Both Peavy (through his contract) and Giles (as a 10-and-5 player) can block trades.

The leader in the Peavy race remains the Chicago Cubs, who might have to bring a third team into the negotiations to meet San Diego's needs. Padres general manager Kevin Towers admitted the Peavy talks right now are focused on the Cubs.

To trade Greene, the Padres would first need to find a shortstop in a Peavy deal -- or get one in return for Greene.